INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL RESEARCH (2^nd Semester) – Computer Room, 2^rd floor

Pierangelo Isernia (Room 26, first floor)

Tel. 235.285/299

Fax 235.292

E-mail: Isernia@Unisi.it

Lesson Hours: Monday 4-5.30 pm

Student Hours: Thursday 3-4 pm; Friday 10-11 am; on appointment

Course description

The course has three aims in mind:

1.  it is an introduction to empirical political research methods;

2.  it is an introduction to basic statistical techniques, resources and concepts;

3.  it is an opportunity to develop skills in the analysis, interpretation and presentation of research findings, including standards for written research reports.

I will assume that students have little mathematical background beyond high school algebra and no experience using computers for data analysis. An SPSS short “crash-course” will be organized out of the class hours (tentatively, it will be held on Wednesday 14 (10.30am-1 pm and 3-7 pm) and Thursday (9-12 am)). To learn how to use SPSS, however, there is no alternative to intensive practice in the Computing Lab (2^nd floor).

The course will cover an assortment of subjects and authors, but particular attention will be devoted to the empirical study of the nature and content of public opinion. The course will stress quantitative research design and “how to do” empirical analysis, using the SPSS statistical software. We will pick up one empirical research and will try to replicate it bottom up. The study we will use over the course is Samuel A. Stouffer (1992, original edition 1955) Communism, Conformity and Civil Liberties.  For assignments we will use Stouffer’s survey data (ICPR study no 7202, available through the Library or the instructor), along with additional data sets that have been assembled for the Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca sul Cambiamento Politico (CIRCaP). Any student wishing to use other data should consult first with the instructor as soon as possible, in order to make sure the data are in a useable computer file (such as an SPSS file for this course). Students should also consult with the instructor about the data they intend to use for their Research Paper.

Through lectures and readings, discussions, individual and group exercises, statistical lab and out-of-class activities, this course will develop conceptual tools that will enable the student to form critical judgments about the research design and how to study public opinion, its nature and impact, as well as on the main methodological problems of studying these issues. This is an Introductory course. Those of you who have already been exposed to formal methodology courses are invited to approach me to best adapt the course to their needs. I hope after this course everybody will be able to enjoy a basic course in statistical analysis either at the ECPR or ICPSR Summer Schools.

Most of the assignments require the use of the computer. You will be taught how to use the microcomputers and computer programs in the Faculty computer lab, which is located on the 2^nd floor. Students are required to use an e-mail account. In fact, course data and especially documentation will be made available through electronic mail.  There will be instruction on this. Students should also purchase at least two 3.5" disks. We will be using mainly a set of statistical programs called SPSS for Windows and there may be additional lab sessions covering other computer applications (e.g. STATA).

Method of Evaluation

Your grade will be determined by the following:

1. Research paper: This is the major requirement of the course and will be developed in several stages throughout the semester. The paper should use a statistical analysis. This work will be presented in both written form and orally, and will be discussed by the class. I suggest you to chose the topic well in advance (and no late that April 2). You will hand in a completed initial version of the paper by Monday, 29 May. You will discuss it on Monday, 4 June and deliver a significantly revised version on Monday, 11 June. All of the intermediate steps in this assignment are required and failure to complete them on time will have a detrimental impact on your grade. [50% total]

2. Participation in class discussion and oral presentations to warm up the discussion of specific research results. [15% total]

3. A number of small assignments throughout the semester: some of these will involve your preparing short examples of research methods that will be discussed in class. A number of them will involve the use of computer programs such as spreadsheets and the SPSS statistics package to analyze data provided by the instructor. You will be able to do these in the week following the class where the methods were presented. All computations done by computer must include all computer programming and procedure commands that were executed. Note that these assignments are due the day of class and will be used in class discussion: you will need to complete them in advance based on the readings. [35% total]

Readings for the sessions, homework assignments, data sets, occasional overhead projector slides used during the lectures, and an assortment of links to other political science research site will be made available before classes by the instructor.

The laboratory assistant for this course is Teresa Ammendola (email: ammendola.biancone@tin.it or Ammendola@Unisi.it). She will be working with you on various computer-related exercises, as well as consulting on the statistical assignments.

Required Readings

Main Texts (but none are “the text”; normally read chapters in at least one of these first three texts):

Pierangelo Isernia (2001, in press), Introduzione alla ricerca politica. Bologna, Il Mulino (available in proofs by the instructor).

Kenneth Hoover and Todd Donovan (1995), The Elements of Social Scientific Thinking. New York, NY: St. Martin’ Press.

W. Phillip Shively (1990), The Craft of Political Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Earl Babbie and Fred Halliday (1959), Adventures in Social Research. Data Analysis using SPSS for Windows. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge press.

Michael S. Lewis-Beck (1995), Data Analysis. An Introduction, Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-103. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Reference texts (to be used as “desk manuals” to refresh your basics on methods and statistics):

Hubert M. Blalock jr (1984), Statistica per la Ricerca Sociale. Bologna: Il Mulino.

G.W. Bohrnstedt and D. Knoke (1998), Statistica per le scienze sociali. Bologna, Il Mulino.

Piergiorgio Corbetta (1999), Metodologia e Tecniche della Ricerca Sociale. Bologna, Il Mulino.

Assignment related texts

Samuel A. Stouffer (1992, original edition 1955), Communism, Conformity and Civil Liberties. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publs.

The Communism, Conformity, and Civil Liberties Study: cross-section and leadership sample Codebooks, ICPR study number 7202, revised edition, second printing, 1974 (available also on file).

Course schedule

•  March 5, 2001: Introduction to the Course: Questions and Answers in Political Research and how to get from the former to the latter

Janet Buttolph Johnson and Richard A. Joslyn (1995), The Research Report: An annotated Example, in Political Science Research Methods. Washington, DC: CQ Press, pp.403-432.

Stephen Van Evera (1997), Appendix: How to write a paper, in Guide to methods for students of political science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, pp.123-128.

Laurence F. Jones and Edward C. Olson (1996), Appendix I: Sample Research Studies, in Political Science Research. A Handbook of Scope and Method. New York, NY: Harper & Collins, pp.360-376.

 We will discuss in class:

 Sidney Tarrow (1971), “The Urban-Rural Cleavage in Political Involvement: The Case of France”, American Political Science Review. 65, 2: pp.341-357.

•  March 12, 2001: Hypothesis and Theory construction

W. Phillip Shively (1990), The Craft of Political Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Ch.10 (“Where do Theories Come from”, pp.163-166).

C.A. Lave and J.G. March (1993), An Introduction to Models in the Social Sciences. Lanham, ML: University Press of America. Ch.2 “An introduction to speculation”, pp.9-49 (try either problems 1, 8 and 9)

We will discuss in class:

A. Moravcsik (1998), The Choice for Europe. Social purpose and state power from Messina to Maastricht. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Ch.1 (“Theorizing European Integration”) and Ch.2 (Finding the Thread: The Treatise of Rome, 1955-58”).

•  March 19, 2001: Research Design and Case selection

W. Phillip Shively (1990), The Craft of Political Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Ch.6 (“Causal thinking and the design of research”, pp.79-100).

P. Isernia (2001, in press), Introduzione alla ricerca politica. Bologna, Il Mulino. Ch.6 (“V. Il disegno della ricerca: metodo sperimentale, comparato e studio di caso”).

G.T. Henry (1990), Practical Sampling. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Ch.1 (“Introduction”, pp.9-16) and Ch.2 (“Sample selection approaches”, pp.17-32)

We will discuss in class (Read Stouffer and one of the others):

Stouffer (Ch.1, “What this book is about?”, pp.13-25 and Appendix A, “How the samples were selected…”, pp.237-249).

R.J. Leng (1993), Interstate crisis behavior, 1816-1980: Realism versus reciprocity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Ch.1 (“Realist and Psychological perspectives”, pp.1-19), Ch.2 (“Methodology”, pp.20-44).

S. Iyengar and D.R. Kinder (1987), News That Matters. Television and American Opinion. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Ch.1 (“A primordial power”, pp.1-5), Ch.2 (“Pathways to knowledge: experimentation and the analysis of television power”, pp.6-15), Ch.3 (“The Agenda-Setting Effect”, pp.16-33).

S. Peterson (1996), Crisis Bargaining and the State. The domestic politics of international conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Ch.1 (“Introduction”, pp.1-12) and Ch.2 (“Strategy and state structure: the domestic politics of crisis bargaining”, pp.13-46).

•  March 26, 2001: Data Gathering (Surveys)

Kenneth D. Bailey (1991), Metodi della ricerca sociale. Bologna: Il Mulino. Ch.6 (“La preparazione del quesitonario”, pp.127-176) and Ch.8 (“Le Interviste”, pp.207-244).

Paul M. Sniderman e D. Grob (1996), “Innovations in experimental design in attitude surveys”, Annual Review of Sociology, 22:377-99.

We will discuss in class (Read Stouffer and one of the others):

Stouffer (Appendix B. Questionnaire, pp.250-261)

W.R. Caspary (1970), “The ‘Mood Theory’: A study of public opinion and foreign policy”, «American Political Science Review», LXIV, n.2: 536-547.

James H. Kuklinski. Ellen Riggle, Victor Ottati, Norbert Schwartz and Robert S. Wyer (1993), Thinking about political tolerance, More or Less, with More or Less Information¸ in George E. Marcus and Russell L. Hanson (eds.), Reconsidering the Democratic Public. University Park, PE: Pennsylvania State University Press, pp.225-248.

•  April 2, 2001: Concepts, Variables and Measurement

Paul F. Lazarsfeld (1969), Dai concetti agli indici empirici, in R. Boudon and P.F. Lazarsfeld (eds.), L’analisi empirica nelle scienze sociali. Vol.1. Bologna: Il Mulino, pp.41-52

W. Phillip Shively (1990), The Craft of Political Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Ch.3 (“The Importance of Dimensional Thinking”, pp.30-44), Ch.4 (“Problems of Measurement: Accuracy”, pp.44-60) and Ch.5 (“Problems of Measurement: Precision”, pp.61-78).

We will discuss in class  (Read Stouffer and one of the others):

Stouffer (Ch.2, “Are civic leaders more tolerant that other people?”, pp.26-57, and Appendices B and C, pp.250-269) and Stouffer et al. (1952), “A Technique for improving cumulative scales”, «Public Opinion Quarterly», 16, n.2: 273-291.

John L. Sullivan, James Piereson and George E. Marcus (1982), Political Tolerance and American Democracy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Ch1 (“Tolerance and Democracy”, pp.1-25), Ch.2 (“Political Tolerance and American Politics: the Empirical Literature”, pp.26-53) and Ch.3 (“A Profile of Political Tolerance in the 1970s: Implications of a Different Approach”, pp.54-81).

•  April 9, 2001: Describe your data

Hans Zeisel (1968), Say It With Figures. New York, NY: Harper & Row Publs. Ch.1 to Ch.4 (pp.3-58).

Earl Babbie and Fred Halliday (1959), Adventures in Social Research. Data Analysis using SPSS for Windows. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge press. Part II (“Univariate Analysis”, pp.41-100).

We will discuss in class:

Stouffer (Ch.3, “Is There a National Anxiety Neurosis?”, pp.58-88).

Ronald Inglehart (1977), The Silent Revolution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Ch2 (“The Nature of Value Change”, pp.21-71).

•  April 16, 2001: How to read a two-way table and what to do out of it

Hans Zeisel (1968), Say It With Figures. New York, NY: Harper & Row Publs. Ch.5 (“Tables of more than two dimensions”, pp.59-75).

Morris Rosenberg (1968),, The Logic of Survey Analysis. New York, NY: Basic Books. Ch.1 (“The meaning of relationships”, pp.3-22).

Earl Babbie and Fred Halliday (1959), Adventures in Social Research. Data Analysis using SPSS for Windows. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge press. Ch.11 (“The Sources of religiosity”, pp.101-108) and Ch12 (“Political Orientations as Causes and as Effect”, pp.109-117).

We will discuss in class:

Stouffer (Ch.5, “Does it matter where people live?”, pp.109-130).

•  April 23, 2001: Some steps toward inference: significance testing

H.T. Reynolds (1984), Analysis of Nominal Data. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, series no. 07-007. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. (pp.1-30)

W. Phillip Shively (1990), The Craft of Political Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Ch.9 (“Introduction to Statistics: Inference or How to Gamble on Your Research”, pp.145-162).

Thomas R. Knapp (1996), Learning Statistics through playing cards. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. Ch.4 to Ch.7 (pp.27-72).

In class we will focus on the χ2-distribution using H. Joseph Newton and Jane L. Harvill (1997), StatConcepts. A Visual Tour of Statistical Ideas. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press (see Labs 2, 3 4, 8).

We will use Stouffer (Ch.6, “Do women have viewpoints different from men?”, pp.131-155) for class exercises.

•  May 7, 2001: Measures of association

H.T. Reynolds (1984), Analysis of Nominal Data. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, series no. 07-007. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. (pp.30-80)

We will use Stouffer (Ch.4, “How Tolerant is the New Generation?”, pp.89-108) for class exercises

•  May 14, 2001: What happens controlling for a third variable – Part I

Morris Rosenberg (1968),, The Logic of Survey Analysis. New York, NY: Basic Books. Ch.2 (“Extraneous and Component Variables”, pp.23-53), Ch.3 (“Intervening and Antecedent Variables”, pp.54-83).

We will use Stouffer (Ch.4, “How Tolerant is the New Generation?”, pp.89-108) for class exercises

•  May 21, 2001: What happens controlling for a third variable – Part II

Morris Rosenberg (1968),, The Logic of Survey Analysis. New York, NY: Basic Books. Ch.5 (“Conditional Relations: aids to interpretation”, pp.105-130), Ch.6 (“Conditional Relations: Specification, clarification, description”, pp.54-83).

We will use Stouffer (Ch.8, “How far does the communist threat account for intolerance of nonconformists?”, pp.188-219) for class exercises.

•  May 29, 2001: A primer to regression

Michael Lewis-Beck (1980), Applied Regression. An Introduction. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, series no. 07-022. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. (pp.30-80).

To have an idea on where you might want to head on: John L. Sullivan, James Piereson and George E. Marcus (1982), Political Tolerance and American Democracy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Ch.5 (“The Social sources of Political Tolerance”, pp.110-144) and Ch.8 (“A Multivariate Model of Political Tolerance”, pp.209-247)

Course assignment is due by June 9, 2001 in my room (Room 26, first floor)